A spatial-temporal approach to surveillance of prostate cancer disparities in population subgroups

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer mortality disparities exist among racial/ethnic groups in the United States, yet few studies have explored the spatiotemporal trend of the disease burden. To better understand mortality disparities by geographic regions over time, the present study analyzed the geographic variations of prostate cancer mortality by three Texas racial/ethnic groups over a 22-year period. METHODS: The Spatial Scan Statistic developed by Kulldorff et al was used. Excess mortality was detected using scan windows of 50% and 90% of the study period and a spatial cluster size of 50% of the population at risk. Time trend was analyzed to examine the potential temporal effects of clustering. Spatial queries were used to identify regions with multiple racial/ethnic groups having excess mortality. RESULTS: The most likely area of excess mortality for blacks occurred in Dallas-Metroplex and upper east Texas areas between 1990 and 1999; for Hispanics, in central Texas between 1992 and 1996: and for non-Hispanic whites, in the upper south and west to central Texas areas between 1990 and 1996. Excess mortality persisted among all racial/ethnic groups in the identified counties. The second scan revealed that three counties in west Texas presented an excess mortality for Hispanics from 1980-2001. Many counties bore an excess mortality burden for multiple groups. There is no time trend decline in prostate cancer mortality for blacks and non-Hispanic whites in Texas. CONCLUSION: Disparities in prostate cancer mortality among racial/ethnic groups existed in Texas. Central Texas counties with excess mortality in multiple subgroups warrant further investigation.

Adherence to adjuvant chemotherapy and post-treatment surveillance in a large community-based cohort of patients with colon cancer

The objective of this dissertation was to determine the initiation and completion rates of adjuvant chemotherapy, its toxicity and the compliance rates of post-treatment surveillance for elderly patients with colon cancer using the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results – Medicare database.^ The first study assessed the initiation and completion rate of 5-fluorouracil-based adjuvant chemotherapy and its relationship with patient characteristics. Of the 12,265 patients diagnosed with stage III colon adenocarcinoma in 1991-2005, 64.4% received adjuvant chemotherapy within 3-months after tumor resection and 40% of them completed the treatment. Age, marital status, and comorbidity score were significant predictors for chemotherapy initiation and completion.^ The second study estimated the incidence rate of toxicity-related endpoints among stage III colon adenocarcinoma patients treated with chemotherapy in 1991-2005. Of the 12,099 patients, 63.9% underwent chemotherapy and had volume depletion disorder (3-month cumulative incidence rate [CIR]=9.1%), agranulocytosis (CIR=3.4%), diarrhea (CIR=2.4%), nausea and vomiting (CIR=2.3%). Cox regression analysis confirmed such association (HR=2.76; 95% CI=2.42-3.15). The risk of ischemic heart diseases was slightly associated with chemotherapy (HR=1.08), but significantly among patients aged <75 with no comorbidity (HR=1.70). ^ The third study determined the adherence rate of follow-up cares among patients diagnosed with stage I-III colon adenocarcinoma in 2000 - June 2002. We identified 7,348 patients with a median follow-up of 59 months. The adherence rate was 83.9% for office visits, 29.4% for CEA tests, and 74.3% for colonoscopy. Overall, 25.2% met the recommended post-treatment care. Younger age at diagnosis, white race, married, advanced stage, fewer comorbidities, and chemotherapy use were significantly associated with guideline adherence.^ In conclusions, not all colon cancer patients received chemotherapy. Receiving chemotherapy was associated with increased risk of developing gastrointestinal, hematological and cardiac toxicities. Patients were more likely to comply with the schedule for office visits and colonoscopy but failed in CEA tests. ^

Socioeconomic disparities in thyroid cancer incidence within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry, 1980--2008

Background. In the past two decades, the incidence of thyroid cancer in the United States (US) has been increasing. There has been debate on whether the increase is real or an artifact of improved diagnostic scrutiny. Methods. We linked SEER9 database with 2000 US Census to obtain county-level SES (Socioeconomic Status) and compared thyroid cancer incidence trends between high and low SES counties. Joinpoint analysis was used to assess the thyroid cancer incidence trends. Annual Percentage Changes (APCs) were calculated to evaluate incidence trends. Results . The thyroid cancer incidence in high SES counties increased moderately (APC1=+2.5*, *P<0.05) before late 1990s and dramatically increased (APC2=+6.3*) after late 1990s, whereas incidence in low SES counties increased moderately (APC=+3.5*) during the entire time period (1980–2008). For smaller tumors (≤4cm), the APCs in high and low SES counties are similar to each other before late 1990s, but the incidence in high SES counties increased dramatically after late 1990s while that in low SES counties continued at a moderate increase. For large tumors (>4cm), the incidence trends in high SES counties are similar to those of low SES counties, which had a steady moderate increase. Conclusion. Our findings indicate that enhanced detection likely contributed to the increased thyroid cancer incidence in the past decades but cannot fully explain the increase, suggesting that a true increase also exists. Efforts should be made on identifying the cause of this observed increased incidence as well as more refined/selected screening and prevention measures.^

Cutaneous malignant melanoma: A study of skin cancer in the United States from 1973--1997

Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is the cancer of the melanocytes, the cells that produce the pigment melanin, and is an aggressive skin cancer that is most prevalent in the white population. Although most cases of malignant melanoma are white, black and other non-white populations also develop this disease. However, the etiologic factors involved in the development of melanoma in these lower-risk populations are not well known. Generally, survival rates of malignant melanoma have been found to be lower in blacks than for whites with similar stage of disease at diagnosis. ^ This study presents an analysis of the differences in survival between black and white cases with malignant melanoma of the skin as the only or first primary cancer, found in the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registry from 1973 to 1997. A total of 54,193 cases of CMM were diagnosed in black and white patients between 1973 and 1997. Black patients tended to be older, with a mean age of 64.46 years, compared to 53.14 years for white patients. Eighty-nine percent of patients were diagnosed with CMM as the only cancer. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

Cystoscopy and the development of invasive bladder cancer in patients presenting with superficial urinary bladder cancer

The objective of this study was to determine the impact of different follow-up cystoscopy frequencies on time to development of invasive bladder cancer in a cohort of 3,658 eligible patients 65 and older with an initial diagnosis of superficial bladder cancer between 1994 and 1998. Bladder cancer patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database were used as the study population. ^ It was hypothesized that superficial bladder cancer patients receiving less frequent cystoscopy follow-up would develop invasive bladder cancer sooner after initial diagnosis and treatment than patients seen more frequently for cystoscopy follow-up. Cox Proportional Hazard Regression revealed that patients seen for cystoscopy every 3 or more months were 83–89% less likely to develop invasive cancer than patients seen every 1 to 2 months. A comparison of the 2 groups (1 to 2 months vs. 3≥ months) revealed that the 1 to 2 month group may have had more aggressive disease, and they are seen more frequently as a result. ^ These findings suggest that there are two groups of superficial bladder cancer patients: those at high risk of developing invasive bladder cancer and those at low risk. Patients who developed invasive bladder cancer sooner after initial diagnosis and treatment were seen more frequently for cystoscopy follow-up. The recommendation is that cystoscopy should be based on disease status at 3 months. Standardized schedules give all patients the same number of cystoscopies regardless of their risk factors. This could lead to unnecessary cystoscopies in low risk patients, and fewer than optimal cystoscopies in high risk patients. ^

beta-catenin interacts with and inhibits NF-kappaB in colon cancer

The β-catenin pathway plays an important role in the progression of colon cancer as well as many other cancer types. Almost all colorectal tumors show an upregulation of β-catenin activity either through mutations in the β-catenin regulator APC or through mutations in β-catenin itself. Upregulation of β-catenin leads to the transcription of many target genes involved in tumorigenesis. NF-κB is a transcription factor which activates many target genes, including both anti-apoptotic and pro-apoptotic molecules. Recently, it has been shown that GSK-3β, a negative regulator of β-catenin, is involved in the activation of NF-κB. However, the mechanism of this regulation of NF-κB by GSK-3β is unclear. As GSK-3β inhibits β-catenin we hypothesized that β-catenin may be responsible for the regulation of NF-κB by GSK-3β; i.e. β-catenin may inhibit NF-κB activity. In this study we show that β-catenin physically interacts with NF-κB leading to the inhibition of NF-κB transcriptional and DNA-binding activities. We also show that in colon cancer cells with high β-catenin expression there is a suppressed NF-κB activity and depletion of β-catenin increases NF-κB activity. Similarly, in colon cancer cells that have a low level of β-catenin NF-κB activity is high and introduction of β-catenin reduces NF-κB activity. Importantly, we show that this suppression of NF-κB by β-catenin leads to a reduction of NF-κB target gene Fas expression. Also Fas-mediated apoptosis is reduced in β-catenin overexpressing cells, which can be reversed upon depletion of β-catenin. Introduction of the NF-κB subunit p65 can restore Fas expression indicating that the effect of β-catenin on Fas is through NF-κB. Furthermore, β-catenin expression was found to inversely correlate with Fas expression in human colon and breast primary tumor tissues. As Fas downregulation is important for tumors to evade immune surveillance, β-catenin inhibition of NF-κB and Fas downregulation likely plays and important role for colon cancer progression. Additionally, we found that phosphoinositide 3-kinase plays a role in the regulation of β-catenin inhibition of NF-κB through the disruption of the β-catenin/NF-κB complex. This study provides a link between two important signal transduction pathways as well as another mechanism of β-catenin oncogenesis. ^

Gastric cancer survival amongst Hispanics- A Hispanic paradox? A case series study using the SEER 1973--2005 data registry

Stomach cancer is the fourth most common cancer in the world, and ranked 16th in the US in 2008. The age-adjusted rates among Hispanics were 2.8 times that of non-Hispanic Whites in 1998-2002. In spite of that, previous research has found that Hispanics with non-cardia adenocarcinoma of the stomach have a slightly better survival than non-Hispanic Whites. However, such previous research did not include a comparison with African-Americans, and it was limited to data released for the years 1973-2000 in the nine original Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Cancer Registries. This finding was interpreted as related to the Hispanic Paradox, a phenomenon that refers to the fact that Hispanics in the USA tend to paradoxically have substantially better health than other ethnic groups in spite of what their aggregate socio-economic indicators would predict. We extended such research to the SEER 17 Registry, 1973-2005, with varying years of diagnosis per registry, and compared the survival of non-cardia adenocarcinoma of the stomach according to ethnicity (Hispanics, non-Hispanic Whites and African-Americans), while controlling for age, gender, marital status, stage of disease and treatment using Cox regression survival analysis. We found that Hispanic ethnicity by itself did not confer an advantage on survival from non-cardia adenocarcinoma of the stomach, but that being born abroad was independently associated with the apparent 'Hispanic Paradox' previously reported, and that such advantage was seen among foreign born persons across all race/ethnic groups.^

Racial/ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer screening and survival in a large nationwide population-based cohort

Background. Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer (excluding skin cancer) in both men and women in the United States, with an estimated 148,810 new cases and 49,960 deaths in 2008 (1). Racial/ethnic disparities have been reported across the CRC care continuum. Studies have documented racial/ethnic disparities in CRC screening (2-9), but only a few studies have looked at these differences in CRC screening over time (9-11). No studies have compared these trends in a population with CRC and without cancer. Additionally, although there is evidence suggesting that hospital factors (e.g. teaching hospital status and NCI designation) are associated with CRC survival (12-16), no studies have sought to explain the racial/ethnic differences in survival by looking at differences in socio-demographics, tumor characteristics, screening, co-morbidities, treatment, as well as hospital characteristics. ^ Objectives and Methods. The overall goals of this dissertation were to describe the patterns and trends of racial/ethnic disparities in CRC screening (i.e. fecal occult blood test (FOBT), sigmoidoscopy (SIG) and colonoscopy (COL)) and to determine if racial/ethnic disparities in CRC survival are explained by differences in socio-demographic, tumor characteristics, screening, co-morbidities, treatment, and hospital factors. These goals were accomplished in a two-paper format.^ In Paper 1, "Racial/Ethnic Disparities and Trends in Colorectal Cancer Screening in Medicare Beneficiaries with Colorectal Cancer and without Cancer in SEER Areas, 1992-2002", the study population consisted of 50,186 Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with CRC from 1992 to 2002 and 62,917 Medicare beneficiaries without cancer during the same time period. Both cohorts were aged 67 to 89 years and resided in 16 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) regions of the United States. Screening procedures between 6 months and 3 years prior to the date of diagnosis for CRC patients and prior to the index date for persons without cancer were identified in Medicare claims. The crude and age-gender-adjusted percentages and odds ratios of receiving FOBT, SIG, or COL were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess race/ethnicity on the odds of receiving CRC screening over time.^ Paper 2, "Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Colorectal Cancer Survival: To what extent are racial/ethnic disparities in survival explained by racial differences in socio-demographics, screening, co-morbidities, treatment, tumor or hospital characteristics", included a cohort of 50,186 Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with CRC from 1992 to 2002 and residing in 16 SEER regions of the United States which were identified in the SEER-Medicare linked database. Survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of mortality and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).^ Results. The screening analysis demonstrated racial/ethnic disparities in screening over time among the cohort without cancer. From 1992 to 1995, Blacks and Hispanics were less likely than Whites to receive FOBT (OR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.65-0.87; OR=0.50, 95% CI: 0.34-0.72, respectively) but their odds of screening increased from 2000 to 2002 (OR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.72-0.85; OR=0.67, 95% CI: 0.54-0.75, respectively). Blacks and Hispanics were less likely than Whites to receive SIG from 1992 to 1995 (OR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.57-0.98; OR=0.29, 95% CI: 0.12-0.71, respectively), but their odds of screening increased from 2000 to 2002 (OR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.68-0.93; OR=0.50, 95% CI: 0.35-0.72, respectively).^ The survival analysis showed that Blacks had worse CRC-specific survival than Whites (HR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.23-1.44), but this was reduced for stages I-III disease after full adjustment for socio-demographic, tumor characteristics, screening, co-morbidities, treatment and hospital characteristics (aHR=1.24, 95% CI: 1.14-1.35). Socioeconomic status, tumor characteristics, treatment and co-morbidities contributed to the reduction in hazard ratios between Blacks and Whites with stage I-III disease. Asians had better survival than Whites before (HR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.64-0.82) and after (aHR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.70-0.92) adjusting for all predictors for stage I-III disease. For stage IV, both Asians and Hispanics had better survival than Whites, and after full adjustment, survival improved (aHR=0.73, 95% CI: 0.63-0.84; aHR=0.74, 95% CI: 0.61-0.92, respectively).^ Conclusion. Screening disparities remain between Blacks and Whites, and Hispanics and Whites, but have decreased in recent years. Future studies should explore other factors that may contribute to screening disparities, such as physician recommendations and language/cultural barriers in this and younger populations.^ There were substantial racial/ethnic differences in CRC survival among older Whites, Blacks, Asians and Hispanics. Co-morbidities, SES, tumor characteristics, treatment and other predictor variables contributed to, but did not fully explain the CRC survival differences between Blacks and Whites. Future research should examine the role of quality of care, particularly the benefit of treatment and post-treatment surveillance, in racial disparities in survival.^

Gender differences in colorectal cancer screening and incidence in large nationwide, population-based cohorts

Background. A few studies have reported gender differences along the colorectal cancer (CRC) continuum but none has done so longitudinally to compare a cancer and a non-cancer populations.^ Objectives and Methods. To examine gender differences in colorectal cancer screening (CRCS); to examine trends in gender differences in CRC screening among two groups of patients (Medicare beneficiaries with and without cancer); to examine gender differences in CRC incidence; and to examine for any differences over time. In Paper 1, the study population consisted of men and women, ages 67–89 years, with CRC (73,666) or without any cancer (39,006), residing in 12 U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End-Results (SEER) regions. Crude and age-adjusted percentages and odds ratios of receiving fecal occult blood test (FOBT), sigmoidoscopy (SIG), or colonoscopy (COL) were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess gender on the odds of receiving CRC screening over time.^ In Paper 2, age-adjusted incidence rates and proportions over time were reported across race, CRC subsite, CRC stage and SEER region for 373,956 patients, ages 40+ years, residing in 9 SEER regions and diagnosed with malignant CRC. ^ Results. Overall, women had higher CRC screening rates than men and screening rates in general were higher in the SEER sample of persons with CRC diagnosis. Significant temporal divergence in FOBT screening was observed between men and women in both cohorts. Although the largest temporal increases in screening rates were found for COL, especially among the cohort with CRC, little change in the gender gap was observed over time. Receipt of FOBT was significantly associated with female gender especially in the period of full Medicare coverage. Receipt of COL was also significantly associated with male gender, especially in the period of limited Medicare coverage.^ Overall, approximately equal numbers of men (187,973) and women (185,983) were diagnosed with malignant CRC. Men had significantly higher age-adjusted CRC incidence rates than women across all categories of age, race, subsite, stage and SEER region even though rates declined in all categories over time. Significant moderate increases in rate difference occurred among 40-59 year olds; significant reductions occurred among patients age 70+, within subsite rectum, unstaged and distant stage CRC, and eastern and western SEER regions. ^ Conclusions. Persistent gender differences in CRC incidence across time may have implications for gender-based interventions that take age into consideration. A shift toward proximal cancer was observed over time for both genders, but the high proportion of men who develop rectal cancer suggests that a greater proportion of men may need to be targeted with newer screening methods such as fecal DNA or COL. Although previous reports have documented higher CRC screening among men, higher incidence of CRC observed among men suggests that higher risk categories of men are probably not being reached. FOBT utilization rates among women have increased over time and the gender gap has widened between 1998 and 2005. COL utilization is associated with male gender but the differences over time are small.^

Goals, plans, and behavior changes: A relevant part of the post-treatment cancer experience

Background. Colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors have to manage treatment side effects, psychosocial issues, and co-morbidities, as well as modify their lifestyles to decrease risk of recurrence and prolong life. Identifying survivors’ goals and key factors that influence their goals will highlight the issues cancer survivors face post-treatment and the resources needed to help them engage in health-promoting behaviors.^ Objectives and methods. This dissertation examines the health-related goals of post-treatment CRC survivors using two studies: (1) a qualitative study to identify and describe the health goals of CRC survivors during the transition from active treatment to post-treatment survivorship and follow-up care; and (2) a cross-sectional survey to identify CRC survivors’ goals, and key factors that influence their goals.^ Results. (1) The 41 qualitative interviews indicated participants’ health-related goals were to be healthy, get back to normal, and not have a cancer recurrence. Most of the CRC survivors reported they maintained healthy behaviors, made healthy behavior changes, or had goals to change their behavior. Respondents were empowered to improve their health by maintaining follow-up care and regular health screenings, and many were managing treatment side effects in an effort to improve functional abilities. (2) The cross-sectional study found that CRC survivors’ most prevalent goals were related to healthy behaviors (i.e., eat a healthy diet and engage in physical activity), and cancer care or disease management (i.e., keep up with health screenings and monitor symptoms). Goals that survivors identified as important were similar to goals they perceived were important to their providers (i.e., goals related to cancer care, disease management). Certain goals were statistically associated with age, barriers to achieving goals, social support and health-related quality of life.^ Conclusions. CRC survivors have health-promoting goals post-treatment and are interested in making health behavior changes. Goals ranged from cancer care/surveillance and disease management to healthy lifestyle modifications. Patients may need help resolving or managing treatment side effects or co-morbidities prior to implementing health promoting behaviors. Healthcare providers’ recommendations may be a powerful resource to encourage survivors to engage in health-promoting behaviors. Self-management and goal setting support could be an appropriate strategy to assist patients with achieving their post-treatment health goals.^

Assessment of cancer incidence in Titus County, Texas, 1977--1984

The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of cancer in Titus County, Texas, through the identification of all cases of cancer that occurred in residents of the county during the period from 1977 to 1984. Data gathered from Texas Cancer Registry, hospital records, and death certificates were analyzed with regard to anatomic site, race, sex, age, city of residence, and place of birth. Adjustment of incidence rates by sex and race allowed comparisons with U.S. rates provided by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER).^ Seven hundred sixty-six (766) cancer cases were identified for the eight year period during 171,536 person-years of observation. In whites, statistically significant standardized incidence ratios (SIR) were found for leukemia (males SIR = 2.70 and females SIR = 2.26), melanoma (males SIR = 1.90 and females SIR = 2.25), lung (males SIR = 1.45) and for multiple myeloma (both sexes combined SIR = 1.86). In blacks, significant excess numbers of cases were found for Hodgkin's disease (males SIR = 8.33 and females SIR = 13.3) and for esophagus and bone considering both sexes together (SIR = 2.68 and 12.54, respectively). Rates for blacks were based on a small population and therefore unstable. A statistically significant excess number of cases for all sites combined was found in Mount Pleasant residents (age-adjusted incidence rate = 563.6 per 100,000 per year).^ A review of possible environmental risk factors in the area: hazardous waste disposal site, lignite deposits, and petrochemical and poultry industries are presented. A need for further epidemiological and environmental studies to identify etiological factors that could be responsible for the excess number of leukemia cases are recommended. For melanoma, a public health educational program to teach the population methods of protection from sun exposure is also suggested. ^

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

Trastuzumab use and risk of congestive heart failure in older breast cancer patients

Trastuzumab is a humanized-monoclonal antibody, developed specifically for HER2-neu over-expressed breast cancer patients. Although highly effective and well tolerated, it was reported associated with Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) in clinical trial settings (up to 27%). This leaves a gap where, Trastuzumab-related CHF rate in general population, especially older breast cancer patients with long term treatment of Trastuzumab remains unknown. This thesis examined the rates and risk factors associated with Trastuzumab-related CHF in a large population of older breast cancer patients. A retrospective cohort study using the existing Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) and Medicare linked de-identified database was performed. Breast cancer patients ≥ 66 years old, stage I-IV, diagnosed in 1998-2007, fully covered by Medicare but no HMO within 1-year before and after first diagnosis month, received 1st chemotherapy no earlier than 30 days prior to diagnosis were selected as study cohort. The primary outcome of this study is a diagnosis of CHF after starting chemotherapy but none CHF claims on or before cancer diagnosis date. ICD-9 and HCPCS codes were used to pool the claims for Trastuzumab use, chemotherapy, comorbidities and CHF claims. Statistical analysis including comparison of characteristics, Kaplan-Meier survival estimates of CHF rates for long term follow up, and Multivariable Cox regression model using Trastuzumab as a time-dependent variable were performed. Out of 17,684 selected cohort, 2,037 (12%) received Trastuzumab. Among them, 35% (714 out of 2037) were diagnosed with CHF, compared to 31% (4784 of 15647) of CHF rate in other chemotherapy recipients (p<.0001). After 10 years of follow-up, 65% of Trastuzumab users developed CHF, compared to 47% in their counterparts. After adjusting for patient demographic, tumor and clinical characteristics, older breast cancer patients who used Trastuzumab showed a significantly higher risk in developing CHF than other chemotherapy recipients (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.54 - 1.85). And this risk is increased along with the increment of age (p-value < .0001). Among Trastuzumab users, these covariates also significantly increased the risk of CHF: older age, stage IV, Non-Hispanic black race, unmarried, comorbidities, Anthracyclin use, Taxane use, and lower educational level. It is concluded that, Trastuzumab users in older breast cancer patients had 69% higher risk in developing CHF than non-Trastuzumab users, much higher than the 27% increase reported in younger clinical trial patients. Older age, Non-Hispanic black race, unmarried, comorbidity, combined use with Anthracycline or Taxane also significantly increase the risk of CHF development in older patients treated with Trastuzumab. ^

Geographic variation in the utilization and survival associated with oxaliplatin chemotherapy in patients with stage III colon cancer

Background: Overall objectives of this dissertation are to examine the geographic variation and socio-demographic disparities (by age, race and gender) in the utilization and survival of newly FDA-approved chemotherapy agents (Oxaliplatin-containing regimens) as well as to determine the cost-effectiveness of Oxaliplatin in a large nationwide and population-based cohort of Medicare patients with resected stage-III colon cancer. Methods: A retrospective cohort of 7,654 Medicare patients was identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results – Medicare linked database. Multiple logistic regression was performed to examine the relationship between receipt of Oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy and geographic regions while adjusting for other patient characteristics. Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effect of Oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy on the survival variation across regions using 2004-2005 data. Propensity score adjustments were also made to control for potential bias related to non-random allocation of the treatment group. We used Kaplan-Meier sample average estimator to calculate the cost of disease after cancer-specific surgery to death, loss-to follow-up or censorship. Results: Only 51% of the stage-III patients received adjuvant chemotherapy within three to six months of colon-cancer specific surgery. Patients in the rural regions were approximately 30% less likely to receive Oxaliplatin chemotherapy than those residing in a big metro region (OR=0.69, p=0.033). The hazard ratio for patients residing in metro region was comparable to those residing in big metro region (HR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.49-2.28). Patients who received Oxalipaltin chemotherapy were 33% less likely to die than those received 5-FU only chemotherapy (adjusted HR=0.67, 95% CI: 0.41-1.11). KMSA-adjusted mean payments were almost 2.5 times higher in the Oxaliplatin-containing group compared to 5-FU only group ($45,378 versus $17,856). When compared to no chemotherapy group, ICER of 5-FU based regimen was $12,767 per LYG, and ICER of Oxaliplatin-chemotherapy was $60,863 per LYG. Oxaliplatin was found economically dominated by 5-FU only chemotherapy in this study population. Conclusion: Chemotherapy use varies across geographic regions. We also observed considerable survival differences across geographic regions; the difference remained even after adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics. The cost-effectiveness of Oxaliplatin in Medicare patients may be over-estimated in the clinical trials. Our study found 5-FU only chemotherapy cost-effective in adjuvant settings in patients with stage-III colon cancer.^

Using spatial linear models with SAR and CAR structure to examine Texas lung cancer incidence rates

Scholars have found that socioeconomic status was one of the key factors that influenced early-stage lung cancer incidence rates in a variety of regions. This thesis examined the association between median household income and lung cancer incidence rates in Texas counties. A total of 254 individual counties in Texas with corresponding lung cancer incidence rates from 2004 to 2008 and median household incomes in 2006 were collected from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance System. A simple linear model and spatial linear models with two structures, Simultaneous Autoregressive Structure (SAR) and Conditional Autoregressive Structure (CAR), were used to link median household income and lung cancer incidence rates in Texas. The residuals of the spatial linear models were analyzed with Moran's I and Geary's C statistics, and the statistical results were used to detect similar lung cancer incidence rate clusters and disease patterns in Texas.^